Cigar Weekly

Briandg · 03-19-2020, 01:57 AM

Yes, I think so. A big one.

TommyBB · 03-19-2020, 06:13 AM

Production in Honduras is suspended.

CSMAnderson · 03-19-2020, 12:40 PM

No I don't think so. They will go the way of toilet paper. Te shelves will become bare. The B&Ms are getting hit just like every other commodity. With less cash available they will not be able to buy in volume like they might otherwise. No, I see the shelves being sparse.

tonycsmoke · 03-19-2020, 04:35 PM

If anything I think you'll see prices go up. I would imagine with people being stuck at home and with spring rolling in consumption will go up. Top that with cigar factories shuttering supply will slow. It takes me back to my economics class - when supply goes down and demand goes up what happens to the price.

BigO · 03-19-2020, 06:06 PM

That doesn't even take into account the trillions of dollars we've created in 2020. Currency devaluation will send prices through the roof too.

Giving each American a couple grand can only drive prices up by devaluating and diluting the dollar.

tonycsmoke · 03-20-2020, 08:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigO

That doesn't even take into account the trillions of dollars we've created in 2020. Currency devaluation will send prices through the roof too.

Giving each American a couple grand can only drive prices up by devaluating and diluting the dollar.

You know the real stunner has been inflation hasn't been an issue for decades. Mostly not our monetary policy, but technology that has brought down the price of most everything. The only exceptions are heavily regulated industries such as medical and education.

TommyBB · 03-20-2020, 01:35 PM

Dominican factories close, according to cA's Greg Mottola

Quote:

Two of the largest premium cigar factories in the Dominican Republic are shutting down due to the Coronavirus outbreak, joining a group of other cigarmakers who closed earlier this week. Tabacalera de Garcia Ltd. and General Cigar Dominicana announced today that they are closing as a precautionary measure against the pandemic.

Tabacalera de Garcia, which is owned by Imperial Brands PLC via its subsidiary Tabacalera U.S.A., is responsible for making a host of cigar brands such as the non-Cuban versions of Montecristo, Romeo y Julieta and H. Upmann. The factory produces 33 to 35 million handmade cigars per year.

“Tabacalera de Garcia is closing for two weeks starting today,” said Rafael Nodal, head of product capability for Tabacalera U.S.A. “The health and well-being of our employees and partners is our most important priority. We will continue to evaluate the situation and take steps accordingly.”

General Cigar Dominicana isn’t closing down for quite as long. Owned by Scandinavian Tobacco Group, via its subsidiary General Cigar Co., this factory will be closing for five days.

Briandg · 03-21-2020, 02:40 PM

I'm talking strictly about cigars, and my thoughts are based strictly on two things.

Unless production is enormously cut, companies are going to be in a pile of worry. If economic uncertainty seriously impacts sales, Maybe 10-20 percent, these companies may blow out some products unless this looks very temporary. They may sacrifice gross profit for increased revenue.

Maybe smoking, and purchasing won't change. Maybe sales revenue won't be impacted at all. I don't know, but that's one hypothesis.

If the percent of us old fossils who smoke die off, they will mourn our loss, as well as the loss of our spending. If it happens it may be mixed filler bundles, and machine made will be left in place.

Dunno. Just a guess, but it seems plausible if there is a significant hit.

The Dominican and Haiti may be hit hard and production may drop steeply.

Briandg · 03-21-2020, 02:41 PM

Five days will tell a lot.

03-19-2020, 01:57 AM	#1
Briandg CW Squirrel Wrangler Herf God Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: southwest Missouri Posts: 35,518	Will there be a crash in prices? Yes, I think so. A big one.

03-19-2020, 06:13 AM	#2
TommyBB Editor-in-Chief Herf God Join Date: Aug 1998 Location: Metairie, LA Posts: 86,649	Production in Honduras is suspended. __________________ +In Memory of E.Guevara(Cubano67)W.Orlando(Shadow) A.Morris (Knife) D.Odom (dodom) D.Revermann (dgr) S.Bouchard (sb1396) M.Cole (Matt76) S.Faccenda (TOJE) R.Smith(IBMer) V.Vandermeer (van55)M.Davis(boxdoctor)S.Singer(bassman)K.Doetze l (drillrk1)D.Hart(garme1962)J.Coleman(John C 81)T.Gossett(Dartplayer1)J.Bolt (jb)E.J.Ferralles(CaballoPinto)M.Cataldo(FVFanMC)K Payne(SanchoPanza)F.Seltzer(Mowee)+LB+Connor Olson+Micah Kercheval+Maggie Bonefas+Karen

03-19-2020, 04:35 PM	#4
tonycsmoke Club Member Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: St Louis Posts: 3,135	If anything I think you'll see prices go up. I would imagine with people being stuck at home and with spring rolling in consumption will go up. Top that with cigar factories shuttering supply will slow. It takes me back to my economics class - when supply goes down and demand goes up what happens to the price. __________________ "Homer, slow down you'll kill us" yelled Marge. "Or die trying" exclaimed Homer.

03-19-2020, 06:06 PM	#5
BigO Publisher/Owner El Chefé BBQ Guru Herf God Join Date: Oct 2001 Location: Atlanta. Posts: 55,765	That doesn't even take into account the trillions of dollars we've created in 2020. Currency devaluation will send prices through the roof too. Giving each American a couple grand can only drive prices up by devaluating and diluting the dollar. __________________ Every time you think you've become too cynical, the world finds a way to teach you that the real problem is that you haven't become cynical enough Free speech is free speech is free speech. There is no qualifier. If you aren't outraged, you aren't paying attention. Never attribute malice to that what can be explained as stupidity. Unborn lives matter too.

03-19-2020, 12:40 PM	#3
CSMAnderson Herf God Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 16,342	No I don't think so. They will go the way of toilet paper. Te shelves will become bare. The B&Ms are getting hit just like every other commodity. With less cash available they will not be able to buy in volume like they might otherwise. No, I see the shelves being sparse.

03-21-2020, 02:40 PM	#8
Briandg CW Squirrel Wrangler Herf God Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: southwest Missouri Posts: 35,518	I'm talking strictly about cigars, and my thoughts are based strictly on two things. Unless production is enormously cut, companies are going to be in a pile of worry. If economic uncertainty seriously impacts sales, Maybe 10-20 percent, these companies may blow out some products unless this looks very temporary. They may sacrifice gross profit for increased revenue. Maybe smoking, and purchasing won't change. Maybe sales revenue won't be impacted at all. I don't know, but that's one hypothesis. If the percent of us old fossils who smoke die off, they will mourn our loss, as well as the loss of our spending. If it happens it may be mixed filler bundles, and machine made will be left in place. Dunno. Just a guess, but it seems plausible if there is a significant hit. The Dominican and Haiti may be hit hard and production may drop steeply.

03-21-2020, 02:41 PM	#9
Briandg CW Squirrel Wrangler Herf God Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: southwest Missouri Posts: 35,518	Five days will tell a lot.